It didn’t take long for the ecotards to blame “man-made” climate change for Hurricane Sandy.
Tom Brokaw, NBC’s Chuck Todd, noted “climate scientist” Bette Midler, MSCNBC’s Chris Matthews (who calls global warming “deniers” pigs), NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Director Oliver Stone and lastly, but not least, the man himself – the Goracle – Al Gore.
Well here are some facts for the ecotards to chew on.
October hurricane strikes occurred almost three times as often during the 19th century as they do now. They used to happen about once every 1.7 years, and now they happen about once every five years. The peak decades for October hurricanes were the 1870s and the 1940s, which both had six.
And what does a real meteorologist have to say about this? Martin Hoerling of the NOAA:
Great events can have little causes. In this case, the immediate cause is most likely little more that the coincidental alignment of a tropical storm with an extratropical storm. Both frequent the west Atlantic in October…nothing unusual with that. On rare occasions their timing is such as to result in an interaction which can lead to an extreme event along the eastern seaboard. As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behaviour over this region in recent decades (see IPCC 2012 SREX report). So, while it will rain like “black cats and Frankenweenies” over the mid-Atlantic, this is not some spell conjured upon us by great external forces….unless you believe in the monster flicks of Universal Studios fame!
Well people like Al Gore love to play the alarmist card whenever they can.
Andy, I agree that little or no notice should be taken of the pronouncements on this subject of Bette Midler and Oliver Stone who, so far as I'm aware, are not climate science experts.
I would much rather quote (as you do) the IPCC.
However, your quote from the IPCC 2012 SREX report is missing an essential part of the statement, here it is in full >>
"—It is likely that the average maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons or
hurricanes) will increase throughout the coming century, although possibly not in every ocean basin.
However it is also likely—in other words there is a 66 per cent to 100 per cent probability—that overall
there will be either a decrease or essentially no change in the number of tropical cyclones."
I'm sure it wasn't your intention to mislead (given your avowed admiration for the truth) so I just thought it best to clarify that while the IPCC see no evidence for an increase in frequency of hurricanes due to global warming, there is much evidence to suggest that their intensity has, and will continue to increase (though not necessarily everywhere).
Posted by: Silverlocust | 01 November 2012 at 11:54 PM